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Increasing worries have emerged about the possibility of warfare involving East African countries, the Ethiopian government and Eritrea, as hostile discourse has intensified in recent weeks.

What Has Ethiopia Stated?

Landlocked Ethiopia's calls for access to the Red Sea through Eritrea has triggered a heated rhetorical conflict.

PM Abiy Ahmed previously announced in the previous year that his government's access to the sea was an existential matter, comments that Eritrean authorities dismissed.

Diplomatic connections between the both governments have often been tense. After a prolonged struggle for freedom, the Eritrean state, which has a long sea border, officially seceded from Ethiopia in the early 1990s, leaving it cut off from the sea.

Five years later, a territorial conflict erupted in which over a hundred thousand people died.

Current Statements from Ethiopian Leadership

Abiy and army chief Field Marshal Birhanu Jula have publicly asserted ownership of Eritrean coastal city of the port of Assab – about 60km from the border - and implied the intention to capture it through military means.

Recently, the Prime Minister said the country's "error" of losing access to the Red Sea as a because of Eritrea secession would be "addressed tomorrow".

The Ethiopian envoy to neighboring Kenya, ex-military officer Bacha, said that Assab was "Ethiopia's wealth" and would be given back "by force".

Eritrean Response to the Threats

In the face of continuous challenges from Ethiopian officials, Eritrea's reaction has been confined to brief comments on online platforms from Communications Head Yemane G..

The minister has dismissed Ethiopia's push for maritime entry labeling it "hazardous" and a "negative policy" of "irredentism" – a policy of retaking previous domains.

Eritrean authorities cautioned on recently that attempts to validate "blatant hostility" would have serious consequences for the Ethiopian government and its regional partners and is a "redline that should not be crossed|violated|breached".

Military Preparations on the Ground

There have been little evidence of large-scale army activities in the frontier regions between the both nations.

Nevertheless, in Ethiopia, state television has displayed completion events of many recruits at various military training camps.

The head of human resources department of the defense force, Lt Gen Hachalu Sheleme, recently said in an interview that the army was in a "strong stance" as "tens of thousands of recruits" were entering service, which he said was "a signal to our adversaries".

Past Roots of the Conflict

For more than half a century from 1890, Eritrea was ruled by Italian colonisers.

After World War II, it was then controlled by the British military before turning into a federated part of Ethiopia.

However in the early 1960s the Ethiopian emperor cancelled this agreement and the region became fully incorporated into the Ethiopian state.

A thirty-year internal conflict occurred, ending with the government's loss in the early 1990s. Independence was then endorsed by voters in a vote in 1993.

Temporarily in the 1990s, there were positive ties between the authorities in Addis Ababa and Asmara, but they fell out over the precise positioning of their shared boundary, leading to war in 1998.

Even though this ended in a truce in 2000, it was never fully implemented, and the neighbors continued at in dispute.

This situation improved in 2018, when the Prime Minister made approaches to Eritrean President President Isaias. The both leaders signed a declaration that the hostilities was concluded – a decision that gained Abiy the Nobel Peace Prize.

The neighboring states were then partners in Ethiopia's recent internal conflict in the northern region.

Yet relations have since broken down again.