Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and triggered turmoil, a warning is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have studied the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of speaking events that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts all parties, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups say this point is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, stated the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each writes two pieces that strive for neutrality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British identity.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but both parties has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
